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Of the 20 quarterbacks drafted under the old CBA, 10 played under the coach who drafted them for the first four years of their career.
Thirteen quarterbacks have been drafted since the league went to a new rookie scale in 2011, and of those 13, just four -- Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz and Patrick Mahomes -- have held on to their coach for the first four years of their careers.
In Goff's case, that was clearly a good thing, but other new coaches don't click with their inherited starter.
Matt Leinart's career went south after Dennis Green was replaced by Ken Whisenhunt in the desert. Take a look at every top-10 passer over the past 20 years and their first four professional seasons, which form the bulk of their rookie deal.
Howie Roseman and the Eagles traded up to grab Wentz, but they also handed million in guarantees to Chase Daniel, who threw one pass in an Eagles uniform before being released and replaced by Nick Foles. The simple response is usually just to peg players who underperform expectations as "busts" and assume that they would have failed regardless of where they ended up. Think about Jared Goff, who looked entirely lost during his debut season under Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Rob Boras.
What if the Rams had passed up the opportunity to hire Sean Mc Vay and held on to Fisher for another interminable season? If he had been truly dismal for a second consecutive campaign, would the Rams have given up on him and gone after yet another quarterback this offseason?
And yet history tells us that the league will wrongly evaluate these prospects.
Bill Belichick, who was on the other end of that swap, famously went back and forth between Tom Brady and Tim Rattay during the 2000 draft.Some fans are about to buy authentic team jerseys they'll quickly regret. Why can't we reliably figure out which quarterbacks will turn into superstars?Thousands of scouts spent tens of thousands of nights in hotels around America for decisions nobody will want to claim three years from now. And can we fix it in time to evaluate this year's class?Mitchell Trubisky is already on his second coach after John Fox was fired. Jameis Winston is on his second after Dirk Koetter was promoted from an offensive coordinator's role.